VERY STRONG HANDS

Almost 45% of all robusta stocks in consuming countries have been piling up there. As of Jul09 Antwerp has 4.7m bags of robusta stock, whereas in Jul08 there were only 1.8m bags. This astronomical leap relates to the increasing robusta certified stocks in the LIFFE market that jumped from 2.7m bags in Jul 08 to 6.2m bags in Jul 09. Nevertheless, it is rumoured that most of these stocks are in the very strong hands of a fund.

EU blend

In Jan-Mar 09, the EU imported 13.8m bags of green coffee, 0.6m more than the same period 2008. While the amount of robusta remained unchanged, the unwashed Arabica increased from 3.8 to 4.5m bags compared to Q1 2008. The other side of this is the decrease in imports from Colombia, from 1.3m. to 1.0m. In most countries of the EU15, there were consistent declines of imports from Colombia, with the most significant drop in Germany (42% down to 0.25m. bags) and Finland (44% down to 0.04m. bags). Exceptions to the decline of Colombian coffee were France, Portugal, Switzerland and Norway.

El NIÑO IS OUT THERE PLAYING AGAIN

The warming of the upper oceanic layer in the eastern Pacific, charmingly known as El Niño, is on its way. The main effect is an unusual amount of rain on Peru’s coast and a diminution of the winds going west, so that the cold front that would normally produce precipitations on Indonesia will move eastwards into the central Pacific. Dry weather in Indonesia might pose a concern for coffee, but given that coffee is a tree crop resistant to prolonged dried periods, it would take a strong el Niño to make an impact. Other effects are sometimes present: It can cause strong rainfall in eastern Africa -to the extent of causing massive flooding- and bring dry weather to Central America.

COFFEE AS PART OF HEALTHY LIVING

The German health association ‘Green Cross’ has published a special brochure on the numerous health benefits of coffee. It not only stresses the benefits of increased awareness, product of the stimulation of the nervous system, it also highlights the fact that coffee is rich in antioxidants, clearly more than green tea, cocoa and even fruit juice. It also helps with endurance sports as it stimulates the production of neurotransmitters such as dopamine, serotonin and endorphins. Negative effects such as increased cholesterol and blood pressure are said to be sporadic and not significant. Even the stomach ulcers are said to be unrelated to coffee. More than impressive are the preventive benefits. The regular intake of coffee can significantly reduce the risk of diabetes type 2 (up to 50% down with 7 cups a day), the formation of stones in the gall bladder (45% lower in men and 28% in women with more than 4 cups a day) and kidneys, asthma, parkinson (up to 50% lower with 3 or more cups a day), dementia and colon cancer. A final but probably most striking benefit is the prevention of liver cirrhosis, which 4 or more cups a day can reduce by 80%. 

SPREAD OF BROCA

The Nairobi-based Icipe research institute has alarmed about the spread of broca –coffee berry borer- in the context of climate change. The insect would be capable of adapting to different temperature variations and they are expecting it to change its geographical distribution. They expect the berry borer to invade new areas and spread in altitudes so far considered to be safe. Especially devastating consequences are expected in areas where trees produce fruit throughout the year, such is the case of Colombia, the second biggest arabica producer. The researchers of Icipe believe that the most appropriate way of protecting the production from broca would be to grow coffee under shade. The temperature in the plantation could thus decrease up to 2 C° and there would be favourable conditions for the borer’s natural enemies.